Yu Yueming: discussing the ten "changes" in the rock plate ceramic industry

The magical year 2021 is officially recorded in history, and we usher in a new year 2022. The Chinese women's football team reversed the trend and defeated the Japanese team, and the excitement of the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics created a good atmosphere and mentality for the beginning of this year.
No matter how difficult 2021 is, 2022 is still worth looking forward to, although there are still many uncertainties: the industry faces many challenges, accumulates many risks and breeds a lot of anxiety. In the next two or three years, the competition between giants, the competition between old and new forces, the competition at home and abroad, and all kinds of life and death competition will appear. The changes of policy orientation, channels and market demand will make people eliminate them if they are not careful.
#01 there will be "absolute excess" in production capacity;
#02 enhanced Matthew effect;
#03 rock board has become a necessary product, and cross industry and cross industry chain coordination has become inevitable;
#04 channel reshuffle, tooling is still a pastry;
#05 labor cost and material cost may be upside down, so intelligent manufacturing is urgent;
#06 "double carbon" policy is imperative, and those who reduce carbon win the world;
#07 the market tends to mature, no matter how difficult it is for brands to become famous overnight, no matter how difficult it is for enterprises to become rich overnight;
#Whether 08 can be listed is related to future development and even life and death;
#09 new features of international trade frictions;
#10. Shift from manufacturing thinking to service thinking.
Trend 1: the "absolute excess" of production capacity appears, and the market and production are cold and hot. The competition among the first, second and third tier enterprises has intensified, and the business differentiation of enterprises is more obvious. Many enterprises are bound to be eliminated in the fierce competition.
Despite the impact of COVID-19 on the past two years, and last year, a real estate company's thunder and lightning incident, but I found that the industry's enthusiasm for capacity expansion has not weakened, in 2021, large pottery enterprises to invest and expand production news:
On January 2, Hunan Xuri green building materials project was signed and the commencement ceremony was held. Xuri group announced that it would invest 1 billion yuan in the production base;
On January 6, Dongpeng holdings signed the investment agreement with the people's Government of Fengcheng City, Jiangxi Province, with a total investment of about 5.08 billion yuan;
On January 9, Jiangxi ASUS holding group wholly acquired Pingxiang Zhengda ceramics, which had been closed for nearly two years, and planned to invest 500 million yuan to upgrade five production lines;
On February 3, the ceramic production project of Hongyu group in Tengxian County, Guangxi was officially signed, with a total investment of no less than 2 billion yuan and 12 production lines;
On February 24, Jiangxi Fengcheng released that Weimei group decided to invest 6.18 billion yuan to increase capital and expand production and build phase III project;
On March 4, Hongyu group successfully photographed Guangxi Xinzhong ceramics with 186 million yuan;
On March 9, deo home invested in Shanxi Huizi new materials and purchased 20% equity of Shanxi Huizi new materials with 50 million yuan;
On May 13, the foundation of Jianyi marble ceramic tile Guangxi Industrial Park was officially laid. The total investment of the project is about 2.5 billion yuan, and 9 production lines are planned to be built;
On June 10, Smick tile announced the expansion of Jiangxi Fengcheng production base, with a total investment of 1.25 billion yuan and plans to build four new production lines;
On August 30, Huida sanitary ware officially signed an M & a agreement with la'bobo to acquire 70.61% equity of Guangxi new Goldman Sachs thin Ceramics Co., Ltd. for 130 million yuan;
On September 10, the new Pearl Group officially signed a contract with Yongchuan District of Chongqing to build a "Southwest green intelligent production base" in Yongchuan District of Chongqing.
In October, Guangdong Xiejin large-scale rock plate production line was successfully put into operation in Zhaoqing production base, Guangdong.
On October 18, the ignition ceremony of 4.0 double-layer kiln rock plate production line of xinmingzhu group was held in Sanshui.
On May 16, the eco-friendly Ceramic Industrial Property Co., Ltd. of chengdejun Industrial Property Co., Ltd. is proposed to use the eco-friendly ceramic material production base of chengdeyan environmental protection Co., Ltd.
On November 18, the ignition ceremony of Oushennuo 5g digital intelligent double-layer kiln rock plate intelligent production line was held in Sanshui base
One side is the increasingly cooling market, and the other is the booming capacity expansion. Under the extreme pull of both sides, the fuse of capacity seems to be breaking at any time, and the "absolute excess" of industry capacity will obviously appear in the future. During the epidemic, the oil price fell to a negative number, which is beyond everyone's cognitive scope. Later, we all know that it is the result that the storage space of oil has been difficult to bear the pressure of its "inventory". In the future, if the production capacity still cannot be effectively controlled, will the storage space of ceramics be sufficient? It is understood that last year, in addition to the soaring prices of raw materials, the rental prices of warehouses were also rising again and again.
Trend 2: with the enhanced Matthew effect, the competition of first, second and third tier enterprises intensifies, and the business differentiation of enterprises is more obvious. Many enterprises are bound to be eliminated in the fierce competition.
In the future industry, the brand concentration will be accelerated, and the Matthew effect of the strong will continue to strengthen. It is not difficult to find that the production expansion enterprises in "trend 1" are leading enterprises in the industry. In 2022, M & A cases in the ceramic industry will only increase unabated. Big fish will eat small fish and shrimp, and small fish will have no shrimp to eat. Unless small and medium-sized enterprises are built into a "piranha" armed to the teeth, they can seize a place with big fish in the fierce competition. In other words, small and medium-sized enterprises should actively maintain their core competitiveness and dig deep into it. It is not difficult to find that 2021 is OK. In addition to the head brand, there are some small and medium-sized enterprises with particularly obvious Enterprise IP and deep roots in a certain field. They set a model for another development model of the industry. In the past, we had big water and big fish. In the future, the pool is small, so it is difficult to raise big fish again.
Trend 3: rock plate has become a necessary product, and cross industry and cross industry chain coordination has become inevitable.
Therefore, in the future, the boundaries between industries will become more and more blurred, and cross-border collaborative cooperation will become the norm. Last year, the cooperation between Huida and la'bobo and the cooperation between Tian'an new material and Yingpai all showed that our industry will enter an era of great integration.
No matter how depressed the rock plate industry was last year, we have to admit that rock plate has become a necessary product for ceramic enterprises. Whether from the perspective of the enterprise itself or from the perspective of the needs of different channels, the trend of rock plate is irreversible.
Therefore, in the future, the boundaries between industries will become more and more blurred, and cross-border collaborative cooperation will become the norm. Last year, the cooperation between Huida and la'bobo and the cooperation between Tian'an new material and Yingpai all showed that our industry will enter an era of great integration.
After all, even the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympic Games has risen from "I" to "we". Why don't our industry open up to the future with everyone? To paraphrase the words of Wu Qichao, chairman of Tian'an new material, that is: "why do you want to work alone? Cooperation is right!"
Trend 4: channel reshuffle, tooling is still a pastry.
Although the thunderstorm of a large real estate company last year brought a heavy blow to the confidence and dependence of the ceramic industry on tooling channels, the author found that tooling channels are still a sweet pastry for the industry. The superficial reason is that the tooling channel is not only the hardbound room channel, but also hotels, hospitals, schools, large business districts, various chain stores and so on. The underlying logic is the first trend mentioned in the article: "absolute overcapacity will become inevitable." In the face of huge inventory and production capacity, enterprises still need a huge channel to digest. At present, tooling channel seems to be the only choice. But are these subdivided tooling channels really reliable? I dare not draw a conclusion easily. In the future, the channels of the industry are bound to be reshuffled. From the rise of packaged channels, it can be predicted that this trend is imperative.

Trend 5: labor cost and material cost may be upside down, and intelligent manufacturing is urgent.
The results of the Seventh National Population Census show that we have entered an aging society, and fewer and fewer young people are willing to enter the factory. In fact, not only in the ceramic industry, but also in the traditional manufacturing industry, it has been facing the problem of difficult factory recruitment in recent years. It is not only difficult to recruit professional workers, but also the employment cost is getting higher and higher. The layout of intelligent manufacturing and digital production is urgent for the industry. Last year, Weimei took the lead in blowing the horn of Intelligent Manufacturing in the building ceramics industry and laid out the first 5g manufacturing ceramics factory in the building ceramics industry; Jiumu and Huida have also successively arranged 5g sanitary ceramics manufacturing plants in the field of sanitary ceramics. In fact, the industry may think seriously. Should we continue to expand production capacity or optimize and improve intelligent manufacturing capacity on the original basis in the future?
Trend 6: "double carbon" policy is imperative, and those who reduce carbon win the world.
Double carbon is the abbreviation of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. In September 2020, China clearly put forward the goals of "carbon peak" in 2030 and "carbon neutralization" in 2060. On May 26, 2021, the first plenary meeting of the leading group of carbon peak carbon neutralization was held in Beijing; On July 16, the national carbon market was officially opened. On October 24, 2021, the opinions on completely, accurately and comprehensively implementing the new development concept and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council were released. On December 13, 2021, it was selected as the "top ten buzzwords of Chinese media in 2021". On December 20, 2021, it was selected into the top ten buzzwords and top ten new words of 2021. On January 4, 2004, it was selected into the top ten brand hot words of 2021 rated by China famous brand. It is not difficult to see from the above policies that for the high-energy ceramic industry, only those who can effectively control carbon emissions can go further in the future. In 2021, many leading enterprises, including Marco Polo and Jianyi, are actively laying out intelligent manufacturing ceramic production bases for photovoltaic power generation. In the future, green production and the application of green energy will be popular in the industry.

Trend 7: the market tends to mature. No matter how hard it is for brands to become famous overnight, no matter how hard it is for enterprises to become rich overnight.
Our market has moved towards a mature market, with a more transparent state in terms of product power, brand power and price. Even though the ceramic industry is still a low attention industry, once young consumers start to pay attention to this industry because of home decoration needs, they can become a "brick home" through various Internet tools in a short time. Therefore, enterprises and brands can only take the real place as the foundation, opportunism and excessive pursuit of hot spots may only make enterprises detour. Another noteworthy phenomenon is that in recent years, there are fewer and fewer new ceramic brands. Because we have realized that it is not as easy to shape a brand from 0 to 1 as in the past.
Trend 8: the industry has officially entered the "post listing era". Whether it can land in the capital market will greatly affect the competitive level and market voice of enterprises.
It is not difficult to find that the previous major trends, whether intelligent manufacturing, dual carbon control, green manufacturing layout, channel expansion and enterprise merger, are inseparable from the support of capital. In 2021, with Marco Polo, new pearl, Shuncheng, Wrigley and other leading enterprises sounding the horn of IPO, the industry has officially entered the "post listing era"
After all, Mona Lisa, Oushennuo and Dongpeng have achieved good results and stable growth after listing, and the gain brought by listing is also obvious in the industry. In the next few years, whether to land in the capital market will greatly affect the competitive level and market voice of enterprises.
Trend 9: the risk of international trade friction intensifies and the pattern of important exporting countries changes.
For all kinds of sanctions and trade frictions, Chinese Jiantao seems to have long been surprised. Under repeated crackdowns and sanctions, China's construction ceramics industry has experienced various tests and forged ahead. According to customs statistics, from January to December 2021, China's export of ceramic tiles reached US $4.086 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.61%. The pattern of China's major exporters has also undergone significant changes. For the U.S. market, China's largest exporter of ceramic tiles in the past, Chinese ceramic tiles even faced the embarrassing situation of almost clearing. While Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries as well as Australia, New Zealand and other Oceanian countries have seen rapid growth. Therefore, although the U.S. market is completely cleared, China has achieved a good advantage in ceramic tile export because it took the lead in effectively controlling the epidemic in the world. At the end of last year, the person in charge of 90 + light tide ceramic tiles (Griffith), who is good at export, told the author that their export growth was as high as more than 50% in 2021.

Trend 10: repositioning the development direction and space of ceramic enterprises, from "manufacturing thinking" to "service thinking".
In the past two years, with the change of market trend and the great change of competition pattern, many ceramic enterprises began to pay more and more attention to the layout of service level. Facts have proved that service is indeed the best medicine to improve brand power, premium rate and order rate. After all, now, whether young consumers of terminals or Party A of major b-end channels, their requirements for services are increasing. For the ceramic industry that has always attached importance to manufacturing, it needs to pay too much price to take the first step. Jianyi's finished product delivery has made a good start in the industry, but it seems that service is still a "luxury" only belonging to the top enterprises. It is too difficult to build a professional service team, and it is even more difficult to build a service network covering the whole country. For small and medium-sized enterprises, this is almost an unbearable cost and an impossible task. In fact, smart entrepreneurs have already arranged in advance. Huanai home group, the leading distributor in the industry, separated their service departments as early as six years ago and established a special service company "ant Anju". In recent years, ant Anju has not only actively enabled the service links for enterprises in the ceramic industry, but also made the service popular in the customization industry and bathroom industry. If this momentum continues, ant Anju may even rebuild a Huanai home through service. After all, Haier's ririshun and JD logistics have created a good model for our industry.
Conclusion
2022 is undoubtedly expected, but it is not difficult to foresee, and it is doomed to be a difficult year. We may also encounter many unexpected changes and events beyond cognition. The only constant is an enterprise's own "physique", which determines its anti risk ability and anti Strike ability. Therefore, in this fuzzy and changeable era, the better choice we can make may be "conforming to the trend and responding to changes with invariance".